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Downturn of Russian economy

By Jim on 2016-10-11 15:6:50 posted in Market Analyze

According to reports, in 2013, the development of the Russian economy downturn, almost at a standstill: the devaluation of ruble, capital flight, severe household indebtedness. Even the government admits that this year's economic situation is really bad.

Although the oil prices  in budget deficit is high   ( over 100 U.S. dollars per barrel ), the wage is basically no growth and the private capital outflows. From the aspect of the social responsibility that the Government takes, budget $ 100 a barrel of oil is not enough. In order to meet the country's spending, the oil prices should be further improved. Next year even the nation projects will be reduced, leaving only key projects.

Currency and industry. There occurs slow devaluation of the ruble, although no significant devaluation occurs. Recently, the exchange value of the dollar increase by about 2.5 rubles, and  euro exchange value increase by 4.6 rubles. According to experts explanation, Russian currency will continue to depreciate, but the timing and extent of devaluation can not be determined. The reason is simple. There is no prerequisite to enhance the economic strength of the ruble, neither is in the near future. Russia's economy will go into stagnation. A few years ago, the exchange value of U.S. dollar is 23 rubles,said a well-known economist, " If the dollar exchange rate was adjusted to 28 rubles, then our GDP will be doubled." In fact, the devaluation of the ruble conducive to the development of industrial production and can win favorable import prices of goods to make the products more competitive. But now the exchange rate of U.S. dollar has already exceeded 30 rubles, there was a time also more than 33 rubles, but the desire of double the GDP does not materialize. The gross industrial production growth is 0 during the year under good circumstances while even negative growth in a bad situation. But cheap ruble is also conducive to the budget. Russia's revenue is maily from the sale of oil. The cheaper the rubles, the higher the treasury income. But the devaluation of the ruble detrimental to consumers traveling abroad with more expensive price. And most of the consumer goods are imported. Compared to this case, the commodity prices are rising by the increase dollar and euro.

Income and expenditure. Compared with November 2012, resident real incomes ( excluding utilities ) , increased only 1.5 % of 26,866 rubles per month in November 2013. The national average wage is 30,670 rubles now, which actual growth is 4.8 percent ( November 2012 to November 2013 ). There are more than 10 % of residents live below the poverty line. price of commodities rose this year, with the inflation rate over 6% more than the government expectation. So the government decided to freeze tariffs of natural monopoly industry. It may help the inflation rate reach 5% in the next year.

On the other hand, resident debt ratio also increases. According to the forecasts of Russian Central Bank, the year, Russian residents debt ratio reached 100,000 billion rubles. Another study showed that people have to spend a third of their income for loan servicing . At the same time, loans of overdue payments are rising. However, in recent months, experts have noted that the enthusiasm of the consumer is falling.


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